The man with the plan

Was Verbal Kint really Keyser Soze in "The Usual Suspects?" In any event, he was the "man with the plan" and I figured that I needed my plan for StA stated to make sure I understand BikeMike's guidance and advice to help maximize my performance in this race. So, here are my thoughts and we'll see where it goes:

• SWIM: I view this as a 3 little bears type of deal; too hard, too easy or just right. Understanding what "just right" is will be based on the conditions but in any case I really want to beat my last year time of 38:05. Before last year's race I thought the worst I could do would be 2:30/100m which translates into 37:30 for 1500m but the current said otherwise. I think I'm faster this year and 2:15/100m is about the right bogey. That means sub 34:00. There is a threat of no wetsuit (current water temp is 77 and limit is 78) but I'm neoprening up even if I have to go to a "wetsuit only" wave.
• T1: I'm not focusing on transitions as I don't expect to make up any significant time. Last year was relatively slow @ 5:00. I would expect this year to be about the same.
• BIKE: Last year my target was to go sub 1:20:00 (average >18mph). I held that for about half of the bike but this pace caused me to blow myself up so I wound up slogging it in for a split time of 1:28:53 (16.8mph). This year my longer training rides have been at about this pace. I hope to pick it up a bit for the race so my last year goal of sub 1:20 is probably still a good target. In order to do that I expect to average >200w but use BikeMike guidance of keeping under 250w. The wind may have an impact on time/speed and, of course, I have to listen to my body to prevent myself from blowing up again.
• T2: see T1
• RUN: The direct result of blowing myself up on the bike last year was that I effectively walked the 10k. This year I want to run the 10k and realize the best chance for success is managing effort on the bike. It is expected to be hot so I'll walk through the water stops while rehydrating. Even so, I would expect that I'll be better than my standalone 10k PR time of 11:45/mile (it has been a while). That means 1:15:00 or better if my body cooperates (before my latest injury 11:00 miles in a standalone 10K would have been slow).

This totals up to 3:18:00 (or about 26 minutes out of last years total). Verbal/Keyser, I can't get Mr. Kobayashi to reach out to you on this but I think it's about right. What do you think? Too aggressive or too conservative?