Will a 2:36:00 Long Island Half Mary Make Me Happy?

I'm waffling a bit thinking about this upcoming Sunday's Long Island Half Marathon.

• One one hand, I want to continue the strong performance I had in last weeks StA's Brick.
• On the other had, I haven't run seriously in over a month since my calf injury in March. That day was my longest run in years but I paid a price for it.
• On the first hand, at that race I was able to run at a 11:13/mile pace. If I could continue that pace I would have a half marathon finish time of 2:26:56
• On the second hand, my pace per mile in the 10k last week was 11:52. Of course this was after a 40k bike.
• On the first hand that 15k was on a hard hilly Central Park course.
• On the second hand, rain and cold are in the forecast.
• On the first hand, I haven't done a half in a long time but need to have one mentally for EaglePrep.
• On the second hand my current half marathon PR is 2:53:58. I fully expect to be fast than this time but how much faster?
• On the first hand, I don't really count the LI Half I completed in 2006 as that was mostly walking.

SisMB did a 2:37:22 LI Half in 2006 and DocWannaBe Caitlin threw up a 2:38:37 at the 2007 Lake Placid Half. A rockstar time of better than SisMB means better than 12:00/mile pace which means, most importantly, immediate family bragging rights. Of course, 2:30 would be better and accomplish bragging rights too.

Good thing my mind is in the right place.